A global base of 45 million Wii owners – amassed in the space of two years – leads to only one possible conclusion: Nintendo was right all along. The doubters and the doom-mongers, each and every one, were wrong.

Yet a company can only look so far ahead. Can the Wii-trick be repeated? Are the very foundations of the Wii’s commercial success as strong as they appear? Would a Wii 2 work?

It seems so far in the distance now but, for years prior to the Wii’s launch, many predicted Nintendo would abandon the hardware market entirely; ‘do a Sega’. At the same time, the Kyoto-based company was making its own predictions; observing how the business was recycling one kind of demographic, and how unlikely it is for more than a single console to succeed in this circumstance.

It was on May 9, 2006, when Reginald Fils-Aime  walked onto centre stage at the Kodak Theatre in California to open Nintendo’s E3 media briefing. On that day, standing in front of a mélange of sceptical, optimistic, and puzzled faces, Fils-Aime prophesised how the Wii was going to penetrate a vast, lucrative, and largely untapped market.

“Do you know anyone who’s never watched TV, never seen a movie, never read a book? Of course not,” he said. “Do you know someone, maybe even in your own family, who’s never played a videogame? I bet you do.”

If the industry wanted to grow, he said, this scenario had to change. And in defending the Wii against the many commentators who were already deeming it a fad, in rebuking suggestions that the console was too much of a misguided and risky prospect, Reginald Fils-Aime said these words: “The graveyard of any industry is filled with the headstones of companies who decided to keep doing things the same old way.”

While his speech couldn’t quite silence the voices of concern that hung around the Kodak Theatre, today, some 33 months later, Fils-Aime (and, more to the point, Nintendo) are now widely respected for taking one of the most commercially astute, forward-thinking directions in the modern game industry.

“If you want to get an idea of how successful the Wii has been for Nintendo,” says Jesse Divnich, Director of Analytical Services for Electronic Entertainment Design and Research, “then look no further than this statistic: If you split the total profit made from the Wii into the whole of Nintendo’s workforce, you would see that each Nintendo employee represents $1.6 million in profit. That’s ‘each’ – every single one.”

At least, that’s the story so far. Nintendo has demonstrated that there’s an ocean of casual gamers to pursue; that they can be allured by a $250 console; that they can enjoy videogames. But the company’s theory won’t be fully tested until a great gaming tradition arrives.

The arrival of next-gen consoles has become such a routine affair that it’s initially tricky to pinpoint precisely why they come about every six-or-so years.

History tells us that there are two unified motives. The first is the opportunity for platform holders to release a console that looks technically superior to its peers. The second is the fear that the competition is doing the same thing, catalysing the necessity to act soon or be left behind. Driving both is the core consumer’s never-ending desire to experience advanced tech, higher production values, and (of course) better graphics.

But Nintendo is now the first company that must consider whether such an upgrade is necessary at all, and if such a switch could even be damaging. Unlike Sony and Microsoft, Nintendo has a distinctly dichotomised user base. Its traditional audience –who have supported the company for years – will no doubt want the Wii to eventually refine itself and upgrade to a newer model. Yet there is little suggestion that its newer (and arguably more lucrative) casual audience share the same desire for next-gen tech.

After all, the phenomenal success of games such as Wii Play, Wii Fit, and Mario Kart Wii demonstrate that the system’s extended audience is absolutely fine playing in worlds that look distinctly last-gen. A big question therefore looms on whether that audience would feel any need to invest their money in an upgraded console, or even understand the reason to do so.

Yet, if Nintendo doesn’t upgrade its system, the company will be in danger of alienating its core consumer.

“I’m just thinking about how many different DSes I’ve bought,” says Eric Nofsinger, Chief Creative Officer at High Voltage. “I’ve bought the original, the thin one, I’ve bought coloured ones.” Nofsinger is currently busy working on The Conduit, a Wii FPS title that is aiming to allure the system’s more traditional consumer base. “I’ve basically bought the same handheld three of four times. But it’s because this one is thinner and sleeker, this one has a brighter display, this one’s a colour I like. That’s kind of interesting because it pulls in the product design element that I think appeals to consumers, but home consoles don’t benefit from that as much.”

Nofsinger admits that – not surprisingly for someone trying to get next-gen graphics out of a stone – if Nintendo delivered a Wii 2 with a hard drive, more memory and a higher output resolution, he’d buy one in a heartbeat.

“But the question here is, if Nintendo makes even the most obvious hardware updates, is that going to make Mom and Dad buy the next Wii? And that’s an interesting question because I’m not sure. I think probably not.”

But what Nofsinger wants from the Wii’s successor,‭ ‬and perhaps what we all wanted in the first place,‭ ‬may not be in line with Nintendo’s console strategy.‭

While a significant leap in technology would certainly be an option for Nintendo to explore,‭ ‬one that may be notable enough to interest the casual audience,‭ ‬Nintendo would be facing a dilemma in building a superior,‭ ‬cutting-edge console,‭ ‬as Divnich explains:

‭“‬Nintendo has made so much profit from the Wii that they could easily make a power-rival to the‭ ‬360‭ ‬and PS3‭ ‬if they really wanted to.‭ ‬But the Wii’s initial low price was crucial to its success.‭ ‬It meant you had a system which was available to a wider audience much sooner than ever before.‭”

“That was one of the key factors in Nintendo’s success,‭ ‬and I really don’t think Nintendo would want to return to the process of selling a console at a loss.‭ ‬They’ve made so much money that I wouldn’t think they’d ever want to deliver a‭ ‘‬bleeding console‭’‬,‭ ‬as it’s called.‭ ‬The only reason you would do so is to set yourself up for profit down the road,‭ ‬which is what Microsoft and Sony are doing,‭ ‬but Nintendo doesn’t look at the market down the road that way,‭ ‬and doesn’t need to right now.‭”

“Even so,‭ ‬a non-traditional gamer really won’t care if their console is high-definition.‭”

Nofsinger stresses that an upgrade would have to be significant,‭ ‬however,‭ ‬in order to compel the mass market.‭ “‬Once you get to a certain fidelity,‭ ‬like with Blu-Ray,‭ ‬unless things‭ ‬look completely different‭ ‬side-by-side,‭ ‬I don’t think‭ ‬the average consumer cares enough to buy what they already have again.‭”

Divnich adds that what is already known about the Wii’s casual audience,‭ ‬from its software sales,‭ ‬is that many Wii owners‭ “‬don’t seem to have a real desire for high-end graphics.‭ ‬They don’t look at graphical performances as a reason to buy a game,‭ ‬and they’re not concerned about review scores,‭ ‬in fact many will be completely oblivious to them.‭”

Nofsinger argues that Nintendo may have to look at another way in taking the Wii 2 a generational step forward,‭ ‬one that emulates the cost-effective next-gen credentials of the original:‭ “‬I think for‭ ‬a Wii successor to‭ ‬be successful with both core and casual audiences,‭ ‬what‭ ‬Nintendo‭ ‬would need to do is figure out a way to make it appealing as a new product,‭ ‬perhaps‭ ‬through‭ ‬improving‭ ‬the form of the device,‭ ‬like with the Wii Remote.‭”

Revising the Wii’s function and interface to make it appear new, however, may prove just as alienating to its casual audience as a tech upgrade.

“For any publisher that hopes to target this casual audience,‭ ‬simplicity is an essential factor,‭” ‬says Divnich.‭ “‬Many casual consumers will go into a game store and not know what they are looking for,‭ ‬and they will tend to go for the games that are simple to understand because they can look at the game box and say‭ ‘‬okay,‭ ‬in this game you can play golf.‭’”

Many game enthusiasts would argue that the Wii Remote is‭ – ‬ironically‭ – ‬a fairly counter-intuitive peripheral.‭ ‬It’s clumsy,‭ ‬they say.‭ ‬It skitters across the screen and doesn’t properly read players‭’ ‬swipes and slashes.‭ ‬Whether true or not,‭ ‬such criticisms are certainly amplified against Nintendo’s PR onslaught which pushes the idea that the Wii is the simplest,‭ ‬most intuitive console to play on.‭

Few would deny Nintendo has done a flawless job in communicating that idea,‭ ‬through TV spots,‭ ‬billboard ads and celebrity endorsements.‭ ‬But could that same PR strategy work with a more advanced interface‭ – ‬a revised and perhaps more complicated controller‭ – ‬could Nintendo compel a casual audience to buy a controller with more buttons, more features, more things to understand?

“If you look at the last generation of consoles,‭” ‬says Divnich,‭ “‬what we know was that the family-orientated market was mainly split up between the PS2‭ ‬and the Gamecube.‭ ‬But,‭ ‬as we progressed into this generation,‭ ‬the‭ ‬360‭ ‬and PS3‭ ‬began life as expensive units,‭ ‬and the Wii came along with its simple,‭ ‬easy-to-understand system,‭ ‬and was able to pull a overwhelming majority of this casual fan base,‭ ‬and bring in a great deal of new customers as well.‭”

The Wii was able to take a majority share of the casual market before Sony even had a chance to release the next Eye Toy.‭ ‬Both Microsoft’s and Sony’s plan has always been to cater to the dedicated user first,‭ ‬whereby both platform holders can deliver a high-end console.‭ ‬As those consoles‭’ ‬manufacturing and individual parts become cheaper,‭ ‬slowly both will be targeted towards a more casual audience,‭ ‬of which we’ve seen Microsoft already begin to do in recent months.‭

Nintendo is actually doing the reverse.‭ ‬After pushing lifestyle titles such as Wii Fit and Wii Play,‭ ‬it is now flaunting Punch-Out‭!!‬,‭ ‬Sin and Punishment‭ ‬2,‭ ‬and an interface upgrade in the guise of Wii Motion Plus.‭

“Wii Motion Plus is going to be a device more for the hardcore gamer,‭ ‬it will aid developers in their fighter games and shooter titles,‭” ‬says Divnich.‭ “‬One of the biggest problems publishers have faced is actually making a successful game for that hardcore market.‭”

Nofsinger agrees,‭ ‬though stresses that there is still a great deal of untapped potential in the basic Wii Remote and nunchuck.‭ “‬How many games have you seen that just use a wag of the Wii Remote‭? ‬I’m sick to death of it.‭ ‬That’s not innovation.‭ ‬At least just make it a decent corollary for a mouse pointer.‭ ‬I don’t want to be tricked into exercising or doing an arbitrary motion that really doesn’t matter.‭”

Yet the many titles that simply swap button presses with Remote waggles still sell,‭ ‬perhaps indicating that simple, straightforward movements are well-suited to the wider market.‭ ‬Just how well Wii Motion Plus will be received by the casual consumer will give a important insight into how significant such interface advancements are for the wider market.‭ ‬But,‭ ‬as Divnich says,‭ ‬simplicity is essential,‭ ‬and Nintendo may struggle to pique the interest of its extended audience by advancing,‭ ‬or even complicating,‭ ‬the next Wii’s interface.

The Wii is an enigma.‭ ‬Even today,‭ ‬the console is full of surprises.‭ ‬Edge has yet to find an analyst that got close in predicting the Wii’s NPD results for December.‭ ‬Back in‭ ‬2006‭ ‬before the console’s launch,‭ ‬not even the most enthusiastic yes-man at the upper echelons of Nintendo would have been predicting global sales of over‭ ‬45‭ ‬million units before‭ ‬2009‭ ‬began.‭

The system has unwritten rules of console design that we all had collectively inscribed.‭ ‬Its performance of sounds,‭ ‬textures and shapes looks feeble next to its market competitors,‭ ‬and barely does it look superior to its own predecessor.‭ ‬Yet the console sells,‭ ‬with each unit making a profit from the off,‭ ‬while its software‭ (‬along with the DS’s‭) ‬have mysteriously conjured a spell that puts an end to short sales bursts,‭ ‬and instead pull a steady profit from games with‭ ‘‬evergreen‭’ ‬appeal.

But the Wii's biggest mystery has always been its audience.‭ ‬The casuals,‭ ‬the mass-market,‭ ‬the extended audience,‭ ‬the family gamers.‭ ‬They are the Wii’s‭ ‬epiphenomenon‭; ‬hard to pin to a particular word,‭ ‬hard to measure in numbers,‭ ‬hard to not notice.

It’s strange that,‭ ‬despite all the complications that the casual audience has provided,‭ ‬Nintendo is likely to take another risk with its next console.‭ ‬Such dare is in the company’s DNA.‭

“When Microsoft and Sony look at the battle for market-share,‭” ‬says Divnich,‭ “‬they don’t see it as a five year race or a six year race‭; ‬they see it as a thirty-year race.‭ ‬Both are willing to lose money in an entire generation if that means it sets them up down the road.‭”

“Nintendo doesn’t look at things like that.‭ ‬They take each generation as almost a new race.‭ ‬If you look over the years,‭ ‬from SNES to N64‭ ‬to Gamecube to Wii, you see that Nintendo taken a radically different approach each time.‭ ‬I mean,‭ ‬the PS3‭ ‬has pretty much the same interface as the first Playstation, whereas the N64 and Wii are completely different ideas.”

“Frankly,‭” ‬says Nofsinger,‭ “‬I think the‭ ‬360‭ ‬and PS3‭ ‬are going to have an even tougher‭ ‬challenge upgrading to the‭ ‘‬PS4‭’‬ and‭ ‬‘Xbox‭ ‬720‭’‬.‭”

“The leap up from Xbox to‭ ‬Xbox 360‭ ‬showed a difference,‭ ‬for sure.‭ ‬But that gap is starting to get‭ ‬minute.‭ ‬When you start getting that‭ ‬tiny‭ ‬performance increases like you do with high-end stereo equipment‭ ‬or automobiles or anything else,‭ ‬where you start having to pay a lot more money for a little bit more performance,‭ ‬things can be really dangerous for the manufacturers.‭”

Nofsinger’s conclusion strikes a chord,‭ ‬because it’s the same assertion Fils-Aime made at the Kodak Theatre back in‭ ‬2006,‭ ‬when he spoke of the graveyard of companies which decided to keep on doing things the same old way.‭ ‬Despite the huge task Nintendo faces in migrating its userbase to a new console,‭ ‬despite the company’s struggle to juggle a dichotomised audience,‭ ‬perhaps Fils-Aime’s philosophy will prove to be just as relevant over the next five years as it is today. (By Rob Crossley, February 1, 2009, Edge Magazine)